If you squint, you can sort of see how it could work out for them, but theyll likely come up short this season. So how does it work? Their presence should give fans in Arizona something to be optimistic about, even as the current roster flounders. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. But it would be a lot easier to do if they could bring back Freddie Freeman. The exercise continues this offseason. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, There are a lot of Reds who ZiPS sees as having significant upside (Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Noelvi Marte), but the system doesnt see 2023 being their breakout campaigns. ZiPS underperformed its usual matchup vs. Vegas, only going 17-13 in over/unders as of the date of release (April 6); historically, ZiPS has averaged 19-11. Relative to the Yankees, the big losses for the Rays (Corey Kluber, Kevin Kiermaier) and Jays (pretty much just Ross Stripling) are relatively mild. 2022 Year to Date: 2022 Projected Rest of Season: I dont know exactly what that profile looks like, but Im sure the Rockies analytics department is up to the task (pause for laughter). by Retrosheet. Also gotta remember that the rest of the Central teams (especially Twins) have payroll space. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. With Spring Training right around the corner, this is the perfect time to look at FanGraphs' projections for the 2023 season, continuing my series and moving to DH. Lets start with how teams performed versus their projections: Teams have gotten a bit more polarized in how theyre run in-season. As you might logically suspect, ZiPS systematically underestimates teams that add value during the season and overrates teams that subtract value. While its still taken as an assumption that hell return, the fact is he didnt sign before the 2021 season, he didnt sign during the 2021 season, and he didnt sign before the lockout. Too many high impact FAs on the board. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors This may look depressing, but it also reflects the fact that everyone in the division is getting a tougher schedule in 2023. Well update these throughout the season as more and more info gets added. They signed Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen to round out their rotation and Ryan Tepera, Aaron Loup, and Archie Bradley to support Raisel Iglesias in the bullpen. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. ATC: ATC Projections courtesy of Ariel Cohen THE. Its insane. Been watching a bunch of old games and it's amazing to [Passan] Outfielder Juan Soto and the San Diego Padres Nightengale: DH Nelson Cruz has agreed to a one-year [Lin] Jake Cronenworth and the Padres avoided arbitration Press J to jump to the feed. ), Cleveland will outspend them in add-ons. Not that theyre likely to hit 9 figures but they will spend modestly. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The exercise continues this offseason. The projections haven't figured out how to handle the Rays' brand of excessively deep roster construction. Tampa Bay won 100 games last year, and the bulk of that same roster returns in 2022. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. ZiPS then automatically fills in playing time from the next players on the list (proportionally) to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings. At least its steamed crab season! 2022 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves. Earlier this offseason, we released our team expected win totals and playoff odds for the 2022 season. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco are both on the wrong side of 35, and the former has already dealt with some minor injuries this spring. The talent was evident, but ownership was clearly reluctant to spend any additional money or prospect capital to supplement the core again. Even if they are good this year, thats still the lesson. The team has a credible backup at most positions and even some upper minors depth (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and, if you believe Steamer rather than ZiPS, Khalil Lee) they can use if the need arises. Both models also assign less than a 2% chance to the Rockies, Orioles, Athletics, Diamondbacks and Pirates making the playoffs. ANGELS 1) How many of the vets can stay healthy? Something went wrong. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors As it is, theyll likely have to get excited in late May when Cruz has all of a sudden taken a big step forward defensively. The White Sox should still be more comfortable than they were before the Twins collapsed last season, as Minnesota hasnt completely solved its rotation woes. Braves News: Dana Brown Interviews with Astros, Thoughts on Extending Max Fried, more, Keeping Max Fried is more important than Freddie Freeman or Dansby Swanson. The exercise continues this offseason. Thats a lot of ifs that have to go right, though. Lets look. Things are definitely looking up in Miami, which is probably just a step ahead of the teams in the tier below. JAWS and the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot: Mike Napoli. Playoff odds tell how likely an MLB team will win the division, wild card berth or win the World Series. Fangraphs mid-lockout ZiPS projections show the Nats at Fangraphs: 2022 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres, FanGraphs projected standings have Sox winning the Central. Five-win projections from a first baseman are kind of rare in ZiPS I started building WAR projections into ZiPS in 2014, and this will be only the sixth time its happened but Matt Olson is at the likely height of his powers. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. The Braves have short-term and long-terms questions in their rotation that are still waiting to be answered. Now, the late-80s Braves eventually became the 90s Braves, something the Rangers are no doubt striving for, but getting from Point A to Point B isnt a route you can just put into your cars navigation system. Manny Machado. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Well start with Fangraphs. So when I see them drop on my timeline sometime around mid-March every year, its an instant click of me. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. In the American League Central, ATC is also modeling a 5% better chance of the Guardians being part of the postseason, whereas the Twins model out 4% worse versus the FGDC simulations. Also gotta remember that the rest of the Central teams (especially Twins) have payroll space and prospect capital to improve if they want to, and the Sox dont. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors He was the biggest addition to their club, but they also traded for Sonny Gray, Gary Snchez, and Gio Urshela, and made a last minute move for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagn. If the ChiSox are truly limited to $10M max (seriously? Shane Bazs elbow injury was a particularly unwelcome bit of news. Renfroe is actually helpful for an organization that has proven bad at surrounding its stars with secondary talent, but theres a lot to do if the Angels are going to even maintain this place in the standings. To support those two generational talents, the Angels focused on shoring up their biggest weakness during this stretch of frustration: their pitching staff. Theyll have their work cut out for them in a stacked AL East, especially after missing out on the playoffs by one game last year, but their combination of young star power and big-name offseason acquisitions should get them over the hump and back into the postseason in 2022. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. So under the current format, they make it in as the first wildcard and have to face * checks notes * Jacob DeGrom or Corbin Burnes in a 1 game playoff. Like the rest of the teams in this tier, the Royals are just oozing with young talent. Check out these NFL playoffs picks and predictions for the game, which can be seen at 1 p.m. MST on CBS and Paramount+. Theres a lot to like about the Miami Marlins, but most of those things are on the pitching side. Boston should have no problem scoring runs in 2022, but theres a lack of depth in the rotation one that got even thinner when Chris Sale fractured a rib this spring. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. Calibration is a long-term project, and while chasing greater accuracy in mean projections isnt likely to result in any huge bounty theres a reason projection systems are so tightly clustered theres still improvement to be had in things like calibrating uncertainty and long-term data. It boggles the mind to wonder what the Rockies would be like if their front office operated like the Rays front office. Crochets elbow injury, meanwhile, wouldnt have been as big a blow to the teams depth if it hadnt come immediately after the White Sox traded away Craig Kimbrel. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. If you dont know, FanGraphs uses both the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for the individual inputs in their model. Speaking of the Red Sox, Im not a fan of how much playing time theyre likely to give to Jackie Bradley Jr., but the Story signing, with the resulting shuffle of Enrique Hernndez to center field, resolved at least one of their outfield issues. Oops. by Retrosheet. The Guardians have a brand-new identity and just locked up the face of their franchise, Jos Ramrez, to a huge extension. Too many wins for the Dodgers and too few for the Giants. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. The methodology Im using here isnt identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings, so there will naturally be some important differences in the results. We get Spring Training, we get to find out whos in the best shape of their lives, we get random injuries, meaningless stats, trades and signings are still happening, a long-term extension or two, and all the hope you can stand for what might happen in the upcoming baseball season. In my mind, that extreme difference in atmosphere and home-away record makes the Rockies the most interesting team in the league outside of the Rays. Read the rest of this entry . This would the same mistake that the Orioles made some years ago with Manny Machado and J.J. Hardy; for a handful of runs, the team would needlessly be lowering the ceiling on a franchise player. Of note is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time than lower-percentile projections before this step. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Call 1-800-GAMBLER. This year? Even if father time catches up to only one of them (and tbh has it not already for Longoria) then 81 wins is pretty reasonable unless Joey Bart just comes out blazing. The surprises start at the top, with the Braves sitting ahead of the Dodgers for the top spot in the preseason rankings. Note that this is NOT the actual 2022-2023 college basketball AP Poll - it's our prediction and projection of what it might be before it's released. Confusingly, Lowe wasnt even one of the American Leagues four Silver Slugger finalists at second base in 2021, as his .863 OPS apparently wasnt up to the standards of DJ LeMahieu (.711 OPS, about half his games not at second). So where do they see the Braves for the 2022 season? The exercise continues this offseason. Ariel Cohen is a fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA). The Padres would love to put the summer of 2021 behind them, but they just cant escape the bad vibes that saw them win just 18 games during the last two months of the season. As for Washington, lets just say that their second-best projected offensive player was someone who I wasnt completely sure I had heard of before. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. The Diamondbacks lost 110 games in a year where anything that could go wrong did. That level of divisional chaos is sure to delight Jay Jaffe, my colleague and GM of Team Entropy or at least it would if MLB hadnt made the decision to eliminate tiebreaker games in 2022, going instead with NFL-style tiebreak procedures only. The outfield depth just isnt that strong, especially with neither Cristian Pache nor Drew Waters having any kind of breakout years in Triple-A. by Retrosheet. With a strong rotation led by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, it finally seems like Philadelphia has assembled the talent to break their 10-year playoff drought. At 12:53 a.m. Sunday, officers went to the 900 block of Greensboro Court on a report of a . No fucking way they are that low next year. Read the rest of this entry . Hartstein went 68-50 ATS (58 percent) and 8-3 on money line . All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. It isnt difficult to understand why the Mets locked up Edwin Daz so quickly. Visit ESPN for the box score of the Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks NBA basketball game on January 17, 2023 But this is also the Mets were talking about; anything that could go wrong probably will. ATC gives San Diego four fewer wins on the 2022 season equating to 60% odds of making the playoffs versus FGDCs 77%. They just need to win 62.2% at home and just 48% on the road, the way that they did in 2007 and 2009, in order to be a playoff team. Read the rest of this entry . Fangraphs 2022 Projected Standings 1399 points 617 comments 78 45 comments Take_Some_Soma SD '84 1 yr. ago Fool me once, shame on you. Still, a bounce back from Nick Castellanos remains likely. Please rate & review the show in iTunes letting us know what you think! After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. ZiPS projects McNeil's 2023 BABIP to be .316, in line with his career average of .314, accounting for much of the batting average drop. Ariel is a member of the inaugural Tout Wars Draft & Hold league, a member of the inaugural Mixed LABR Auction league and plays high stakes contests in the NFBC. Please enter a valid email and try again. Its hard to get where you want to go if you dont know where youre starting. ZiPS Projected Standings American League East, ZiPS Projected Standings American League Central, ZiPS Projected Standings American League West. These standings represent the best estimates ZiPS can make at this point about where a team sits in the leagues pecking order, based solely on the players currently under contract with the team. Which is what the Chisox are supposed to do on $10M. The departures of Mark Canha and Starling Marte are a real setback for Oakland, but the lineups core remains intact. Toronto also projects to have the lowest downside of any of the AL East contenders. The least the team could do is let the Orioles faithful have some fun at the ballpark. They also need to figure out how to solve the Coors Field hangover effect; over the last five seasons the Rockies have won 55.4% of their games at home and just 43.2% of their games on the road. Sign up for the The Phillies were one of the most active teams during the offseason, signing Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to slug in the middle of their lineup and bringing in a bunch of late-inning options in the bullpen. Theyll get him and James Paxton back from injury sometime this summer, but until then, theyll have to hope that Michael Wacha and Rich Hill can hold up the back end of the rotation. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Any team led by Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani has the potential to be one of the best in all of baseball. The Guardians and Royals are both teams with limited short-term upside after low-key offseasons. And then theres the Orioles. Theres no trick here; Im not going to say, Ha ha! But the same question that has hung over their recent run of success remains for this squad: will they score enough runs to support their excellent pitching staff? by Retrosheet. Juan Soto is one of the most electrifying young players in the game; Washington would do well to extend him and then build a winner around him again. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered through arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Martinez and Alex Verdugo. Even if the Nationals struggle to stay out of the NL East basement, theyll at least be entertaining to watch. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please. Looking at which projections went the most wayward is definitely an exercise that makes me soul cringe a bit, but in any model, being wrong is an important component of eventually being right. Padres sneaking in as a WC team and reaching or possibly winning the WS would be an amazing 2022. It arrived stressfully, chaotically, and slightly late, but the 2022 season is here. Theyll get a full season of Wander Franco and just handed the keys to another one of their top prospects in Josh Lowe after trading Austin Meadows this week. Ostensibly, theyre allowing him time to work on his defense since he could be moving off shortstop sooner rather than later, but hed at least give fans in Pittsburgh something to get excited about. The Marlins find themselves on even footing with the teams in this tier behind the strength of their exciting pitching staff. Outbidding Minnesota for Correa (or signing Trevor Story) would have been a more elegant and probably superior solution to the the Josh Donaldson trade, without adding significant money to the payroll. The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. For these Opening Day power rankings, Ive used each teams projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections. The projections actually see the Pirates having a halfway decent offense and Endy Rodriguez has a terrific projection but the rotation still projects rather poorly, as ZiPS remains frightened of Mitch Kellers plate discipline data. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Actually, the reason theyve spent no money is that Dolan is cheap and knows hell make money win or lose. If theyre not your thing then Im not sure why you clicked on this article. These standings reflect everything through yesterdays Hunter Renfroe trade. You could make an argument for any of these four teams to sit atop these rankings, though, and thats why theyre presented in tiers rather than a straight numerical order. Taking home runs away in Baltimore seems like a cruel reward for fans who have been dragged through three 100-loss seasons in the last four years. Luke Voit was a nice pickup from the Yankees, and a last-minute trade for Sean Manaea solidified their rotation. The Brewers strength is unquestioned, with the best projected starting rotation in the National League. The Angels have the benefit here of having most of the teams performance tied up in just a few players, with nobody crucial headed to free agency. As usual, dont hesitate to tweet us or comment below with fantasy questions. bigbicepturner Wil Myers 1 yr. ago Fool me twice Can't fool me again edit: damnit, I screwed it up. Correa is a serious loss for the Astros, but they still project as the most complete team in the division. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors The problem with the 2022 Angels was, if you can believe this, not their pitching. Would half their analysis department possess Ph.D.s in physics? I talked quite a lot about Francos outlook when he he signed his big ol contract extension, so I wont rehash that here. They did bring back DeScalfani and Alex Wood and Logan Webb is a stud. Despite all that young talent, it was rather confusing to see them refuse to even try to improve their roster from the outside. That makes the Rangers an interesting case study in a team trying to buy its way out of its rebuilding phase before the top prospects are ready to contribute. 2022 Playoff Odds, . The problem is, hitting home runs has never really been the Rockies problem. ZiPS gave Cleveland the most prospects in its top 100 and is a fan of the Royals Bobby Witt Jr., Nick Pratto, and MJ Melendez, so both could have much more sunny prognostications in another year or two. The exercise continues this offseason. OK, not really. For just this run of rankings, Ive used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections. 2023 projected standings for major league baseball teams. FanGraphs simulates each season 10,000 times to generate the probabilities. by Retrosheet. Entering the 2022 NFL season, he is 427-344 all-time on NFL sides (plus $3,764 for $100 players), including 394-330 against the spread. Jeremy Pea has shown plenty of promise in the minors and comes in highly regarded, but hes simply not likely to replace his production immediately or fully. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. The lineup is neither good nor particularly young, and as such, it will likely struggle to push the Marlins to be much better than the National Leagues 14th-ranked offense in runs scored, Miamis 2021 mark. The Mets might have snuck into the bottom of the second tier if Jacob deGrom hadnt gotten hurt this spring, sidelining him for the first half of the season. Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. That was Milwaukees focus this offseason, trading for Hunter Renfroe and signing Andrew McCutchen to supplement the lineup. They traded for Matt Olson and immediately signed him to an eight-year extension, giving them their long-term replacement at first base. by Retrosheet. Even with a healthy team here Fangraphs projection stands and the Angels are projected to finish in 4th place in the AL West." Last year, when PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus projection model, predicted the Braves would only win 82 games, all of Braves Twitter lost its collective mind. The offensive holes arent so deep as to prevent baseballs or electromagnetic radiation from escaping. Wander Francos very quickly become a star, and Brandon Lowe is my pick for the most underrated second baseman in the game. I do think they ought to be in the market for a first base upgrade, keeping Jake Cronenworth at second and allowing Ha-Seong Kims eventual role be determined by what the Friars do with Tatis. Adding Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, Mitch Garver, Kole Calhoun, and Brad Miller certainly lifts the ceiling of their roster, but it still remains incredibly top heavy. Collin McHugh had an impressive 2022 campaign too 2.60 ERA with a 0.938 WHIP over 69.1 innings. I still wish Chicago had outbid the Rays for Nelson Cruzs services. So there you go, if projection models are your thing, thats all good news from two of the biggest sites in the baseball community. They did manage to re-sign Brandon Belt, Anthony DeSclafani, and Alex Wood while also adding Carlos Rodn, Alex Cobb, and Matthew Boyd to their rotation and Joc Pederson to their lineup. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Dropping $125M on JRam doesnt seem to square with your assessment. The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. Yikes. We've graded all 32 teams -- including one A+ and two F's -- and announced the winners of our own batch of awards . ATC is smart aggregation of other projections; its methodology is based on the process that Nate Silver uses with his political forecasting model over at FiveThirtyEight. Projection systems and all their glory have arrived. The success of ATC stems from minimizing parameter risk across the player pool, which you can read more about here. Hes about half of their payroll now. Signing Kris Bryant to launch dingers into the stratosphere in Denvers thin air is undeniably cool and fun. With three World Series appearances over the last five seasons and just one championship to show for it, you could view their recent dynasty as having some unfinished business despite its excellence. ZiPS misses for teams from year to year are uncorrelated with an r^2 of one years miss to the next of 0.000575. These rankings, though, are entirely data driven. They play half their games in Coors Field and Coors Field is weird, it makes sense to get hitters and pitchers that are adapted to the situation there (just as it makes sense for the Yankees to sign guys who take advantage of the short porch in right, etc.). The addition of Trevor Story to their roster gives the Red Sox three superstars on the infield with a fantastic supporting cast led by J.D. Ariel is also the winner of the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. by Retrosheet. Evan Longoria is 36, Brand Crawford is 35, and Brandon Belt is 33. ZiPS is projecting a solid return for Ronald Acua Jr., but theres still some danger in that outfield. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. And thats where all these models are built. Braves Hall of Fame profile: Bronson Arroyo. 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Having any kind of breakout years in Triple-A we released our team expected win totals playoff... League West is 35, and Brandon Lowe is my pick for the top spot in game!